AIGR Research Supplement #10 The Speed-to-Power Index
A framework for evaluating which U.S. grid regions can move large-load projects from demand to energized operation most efficiently.
Following this week’s AI Grid Report issue 10 on the queue behind the queue, we continued refining the framework, incorporating additional sources, feedback, and new data. The result is the a research supplement about the AIGR Speed-to-Power Index.
What the Index Measures
The AIGR Speed-to-Power Index measures a question that traditional interconnection data often misses:
How quickly can a large-load project move from announced demand to energized operation?
Most public discussion focuses on queue size.
We focus on how quickly projects move from demand to energized operation.
The index evaluates the physical and procedural factors that determine whether a project can move from concept to power on a realistic timeline.
Among other factors, the framework considers:
Large-load queue magnitude
Post-approval energization delays
Transmission build requirements
Substation and infrastructure readiness
Regional pathways for co-located generation and alternative interconnection structures
The goal is not to estimate total demand but rather to identify where demand is most likely to reach power first.
Why Speed-to-Power Matters
For much of the last decade, investors could assume that approved demand would eventually become operating demand.
That assumption is becoming less reliable.
AI infrastructure is forcing investors to confront a question that rarely mattered at this scale before:
How much time sits between demand and delivered power?
A signed agreement no longer guarantees a predictable timeline to energization.
The gap between announced capacity and energized capacity is beginning to influence project economics directly.
Projects that can reach power sooner may command a premium over projects with larger headline demand but weaker execution certainty.
In that environment, speed-to-power becomes more than an operational metric.
It becomes a capital allocation metric.
Three Findings That Stood Out
1. Queue Size Is Becoming a Poor Proxy for Deliverable Power
Several regions continue to report exceptionally large demand pipelines.
Far fewer projects have demonstrated a clear path from approval to energized operation.
The difference between those two numbers may become one of the most important metrics investors track over the next several years.
2. The Delay Often Begins After Approval
Interconnection approval remains important.
But in several regions, transmission upgrades, substation capacity, equipment availability, and energization timelines now represent a second waiting period that can stretch for years.
Approval can arrive years before usable power.
3. Alternative Paths Are Becoming Strategically Important
Grid operators are increasingly evaluating frameworks that allow developers to pair generation with load, accept flexible service arrangements, or pursue alternative energization structures.
The regions creating workable pathways around traditional bottlenecks may attract projects that cannot afford to wait for conventional timelines.
The full Speed-to-Power Index, methodology, regional scoring framework, and supporting analysis are available below for paid subscribers.
If you’re already a subscriber, thank you for supporting this work.
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