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The AI Grid Report
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The Market That Can’t Clear
PJM cleared at the cap for a second time. The system is pricing a shortage it can’t fix.
May 5
•
Neil Winward
1
April 2026
The Constraint Has Moved
One month in, the same pattern keeps showing up: the grid constraint hasn’t disappeared—it has shifted.
Apr 30
•
Neil Winward
5
3
1
The Withdrawal Rate
Most grid projects never make it out of the queue—and what it means for AI infrastructure
Apr 28
•
Neil Winward
1
1
Everything Connects in Texas. That’s the Problem.
ERCOT has the fastest interconnection in the U.S.—and the highest system stress. The constraint didn’t disappear. It moved.
Apr 21
•
Neil Winward
2
1
Fermi Inc. (FRMI): How A Good Macro Call Became a Bad Single-Name Bet - BONUS CONTENT (Paid Subscribers)
The bundle was the bug. Offtake, not nameplate, is the scarce asset.
Apr 20
•
Neil Winward
2
2
1
America Can’t Build AI Without China’s Permission
Half of 2026 data centers are delayed. The bottleneck isn’t chips — it’s transformers.
Apr 14
•
Neil Winward
1
4
1
Behind the Score: How We Measure Grid Constraints
Most AI infrastructure bets fail at the grid — this is how we measure where and why
Apr 9
•
Neil Winward
2
2
2
The Grid Can’t Keep Up With Oil’s Shock
Why electrification demand is accelerating into a system that decides what gets built—and what doesn’t
Apr 7
•
Neil Winward
2
Invite your friends to read The AI Grid Report
Thank you for reading The AI Grid Report — your support allows me to keep doing this work.
Apr 1
•
Neil Winward
4
March 2026
AI Needs Power—The Grid Can't Keep Up
The AI boom has a constraint most of the market isn’t pricing. It’s not chips. It’s not capital. It’s permission to connect to the grid.
Mar 31
•
Neil Winward
10
5
3
The Power Bottleneck: Why Electricity Will Limit AI Growth
AI demand is growing faster than the world’s electrical infrastructure — and that will reshape where compute gets built.
Mar 18
•
Neil Winward
4
3
The Coming AI Power Shortage
Why the AI Boom Is Running Into the Grid
Mar 12
•
Neil Winward
5
1
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